2026 Season · Final

NCAA D1 Bracketology

Cradl's projected NCAA tournament field, updated continuously from RPI, Elo power ratings, and conference tournament outcomes.

Projected Bracket
Projection
Win probability Favorite Coin-flip Underdog Conference shown in the tabs above & standings
Conference Champions
Reflects the bracket mode you're viewing. Switches when you change modes.
Committee score = RPI + adjustment
Sched: +/- bonus when schedule is stronger/weaker than the field median
Big Wins: +0.005 / +0.003 / +0.0015 / +0.0008 per win vs RPI top-5 / top-10 / top-15 / top-20
Bad Losses: -0.003 per loss to a team ranked 21+ (capped at 6)
Last 4 At-Large In
#12 Maryland Terrapins
RPI 0.6002 | Cmt 0.6128 (+0.0126)
7-6 | SOS 0.611
Sched +0.0080 · Big Wins +0.0046 · Bad Losses +0.0000
#9 Johns Hopkins University Blue Jays
RPI 0.6262 | Cmt 0.6440 (+0.0178)
10-6 | SOS 0.618
Sched +0.0087 · Big Wins +0.0121 · Bad Losses -0.0030
#8 Cornell Big Red
RPI 0.6325 | Cmt 0.6521 (+0.0196)
11-5 | SOS 0.609
Sched +0.0078 · Big Wins +0.0118 · Bad Losses +0.0000
#7 Virginia Cavaliers
RPI 0.6268 | Cmt 0.6537 (+0.0270)
10-7 | SOS 0.620
Sched +0.0090 · Big Wins +0.0180 · Bad Losses +0.0000
First 4 Out
Yale Bulldogs
RPI 0.5988 | Cmt 0.6105 (+0.0118)
9-6 | SOS 0.603
Sched +0.0073 · Big Wins +0.0045 · Bad Losses +0.0000
Harvard Crimson
RPI 0.5931 | Cmt 0.6047 (+0.0116)
9-5 | SOS 0.589
Sched +0.0058 · Big Wins +0.0058 · Bad Losses +0.0000
Pennsylvania Quakers
RPI 0.5817 | Cmt 0.5902 (+0.0086)
7-6 | SOS 0.601
Sched +0.0071 · Big Wins +0.0015 · Bad Losses +0.0000
Ohio State Buckeyes
RPI 0.5731 | Cmt 0.5791 (+0.0061)
10-4 | SOS 0.576
Sched +0.0046 · Big Wins +0.0045 · Bad Losses -0.0030
How This Bracket Works

The NCAA D1 men's lacrosse tournament features 18 teams: 10 automatic qualifiers (conference tournament champions) and 8 at-large selections chosen by the committee based on RPI, strength of schedule, and record against ranked opponents.

The bottom four seeds (15-18) play in the Opening Round, with winners advancing to face the 1 and 2 seeds. The top 8 seeds host First Round games. From there, the bracket is fixed through Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and the Championship.

Three projection modes

Pure RPI — naive seeding by raw RPI with standard 1v16 / 8v9 / 5v12 / 4v13 pairings. No bracket-construction adjustments.

Standard Bracket — RPI seeding, then the NCAA committee's bracket-construction rules: host funneling at quarterfinal sites, conference-conflict avoidance in the first round, the 400-mile travel preference, and prior-year rematch avoidance.

Committee Projection — selection and seeding driven by a composite committee score: RPI + bounded adjustment. The adjustment rewards strength of schedule and signature wins, penalizes losses to teams ranked outside the top 20, and shuffles 3–5 ranks around the bubble while leaving the top seeds stable. Pairings then apply the same Standard Bracket rules.

Bubble Watch

The Last 4 At-Large In and First 4 Out panels reflect the bracket mode you're viewing — they swap when you change modes. Each entry shows its RPI, committee score, and the three components of the committee adjustment (SOS bonus, signature wins, bad losses).

Win probabilities are calculated using Cradl's Elo power ratings, which account for margin of victory, strength of schedule, and home-field advantage throughout the season.

Conference Champion Picker: Use the sidebar dropdowns to explore "what if" scenarios by selecting different conference tournament winners. The bracket recalculates seeding and at-large selections based on your picks. Note that RPI values reflect the current season snapshot and do not simulate the additional wins/losses that would result from conference tournament outcomes.

Fetching AI analysis…